№1 (47) January-February 2019
O. K. Yastrebova
State Assignment Financing in the Context of Electronic Budget: New Challenges and Old Problems
The article examines the issues related to formation and financing of a state assignment in the context of electronic budget and new requirements for justification of standard costs. The author aims to analyze the experience of application of state assignment and standard costs in a new environment, to identify and structure the associated methodological and practical problems, and to justify the proposed solutions. The analysis reveals how substantial is the problem of non-compliance with provision of the regulatory legal framework for the formation of state assignment and standard costs by federal departments. Based on the analysis of new requirements for calculation of standard costs, the author concludes that implementation requires a complex, analytical and methodological work. The article shows that a significant number of departments are not ready for such work in terms of the lack of necessary information about expenditures of their subordinated bodies as well as lack of modern tools for costs accounting. The article also provides the example of successful experience of standard costs formation and specifies the necessary preconditions for that. The author analyzes the features of public services characteristics that influence formation of state assignment and standard costs calculation. In addition, the author proposes to balance requirements for the formation of standard costs with sectoral features and to moderate the existing requirements for standard costs calculation for a number of public services, taking into account objective restrictions. The author emphasizes the necessity to introduce modern tools for costs accounting in public entities.
Keywords: state assignment, financing of state assignment, standard costs, base standard costs, correcting coefficients, electronic budget, lists of services and works, justification of budget appropriations
JEL: H59, H61, H68
O. V. Bogacheva, O. V. Smorodinov
Creation of Enabling Environment for Spending Reviews in Russia
The article is focused on implementation of spending reviews in Russia. The authors claim that general success of spending reviews in the country depends on certain institutional conditions. Adoption of the order of the Russian Government on the approval of the spending reviews format is viewed by the authors as one of the necessary steps that should be followed by adoption of the regulations and guides set. In particular, operational procedures of working groups should be approved, preparation standards for final reports should be set, leading role of the Ministry of Finance in operational management should be outlined as well as roles and responsibilities of all other stakeholders. Based on the experience of OECD countries, the article states that special information base of spending reviews is also required. It should be different from the base used in programs and project evaluation process because of different purposes of spending reviews and program efficiency evaluation: success of spending review means that proposals for future expenditures reallocation are integrated into the budget process (which is usually not the case with program efficiency evaluation). The authors conclude that implementation of spending reviews should become a part of integrated approach in governance of budget expenditures in Russia, complementing such performance budgeting instruments as project/program effectiveness and efficiency evaluation, monitoring of financial management quality and efficiency auditing.
Keywords: preparation of spending reviews, budget process, saving and expenditure prioritization, selective spending reviews, performance budgeting
JEL: H50, H60
D. N. Ershov
Using State Guarantees in Risk Management of Investment Projects
The provision of state guarantees in the planning and implementation of investments is a common instrument of state support and attraction of additional financial sources to large infrastructure projects. On the other hand, risks resulting from government guarantees may adversely affect the sustainability of the budget system. In order to neutralize such risks, a system of investment risk management arising from government support of investments is applied. In recent years to minimize the risks with regard to the budget, many countries undertake legislative and procedural changes related to the provision of state guarantees. The article is devoted to the modern practice of state guarantees provision, while planning and implementing large investment infrastructure projects on the example of Germany and France. Among the considered issues are the legal framework, procedures and conditions for the provision of state guarantees. Certain elements of state guarantees system of Germany and France could be examples for possible introduction in Russia.
Keywords: state guarantees, investment projects, infrastructure development, risk management, public investment, contingent liabilities, budget sustainability, public-private partnership
JEL: Е62, H54
N. E. Barbashova
Application of a Unified Methodology for Intergovernmental Equalization at Regional Level
High degree of inequity in fiscal capacity of local budgets requires flexible and efficient system of intergovernmental equalization. According to actual budget legislation, equalization transfers at subnational level have a number of forms. Different types of local bodies accept transfers from different budget funds that are accumulated at regional or local levels. As a result, the scheme of equalization of a local budget is rather complicated. Another problem of the current system of intergovernmental equalization at subnational level is that municipalities of the same type (e. g. rural settlements) become incomparable by income sources and expenditure responsibilities. This is due to the changes in legislation in the field of power assignment at regional and local levels of the budget system. The article proposes a possible solution for this problem based on legislation analysis and interregional comparison. The author offers a transition to a unified scheme of equalization for all types of municipalities. Moreover, the author formulates several necessary amendments to legislation and presents a model methodology of distribution of equalizing transfers from the unified fund.
Keywords: intergovernmental relations, local budget, equalization transfers, separation of powers
JEL: H72, H77
I. V. Nikonov, A. S. Sirotkin
Retail Credit Growth in Russian Regions
The article describes the development features of the retail lending in the Russian Federation after 2015–2016 recession period. The authors indicate the recent trends in the retail credit market through the analysis of mortgage and retail loan markets performance with a breakdown by groups of country regions. Groups of regions are defined by the credit growth ratio and personal income level. The groups of regions have such characteristics as living standards, dynamics of the credit growth and past due debt in different retail lending segments, and household bank deposits. The authors determine the highest retail credit growth in regions with the higher-than-average personal debt-to-income ratio, while the mortgages and retail loans show mostly proportionate dynamics in the overall retail credit growth.
Keywords: retail lending, credit cycle, mortgage loans, retail loans, regional credit markets, foreign currency revaluation, growth decomposition
JEL: G21, R11
Yu. A. Spletukhov
Attitude of Russian Citizens to Insurance Services: Analytical Review
The purpose of the article is to study the interest degree of Russians in insurance services, to identify the causes affecting it, to assess satisfaction with their quality. In order to solve it, the author analyzes the results of public polls conducted within recent years by various sociological services, summarizes the features of formation of effective demand for insurance services, discusses the criteria that guide consumers of insurance services when choosing an insurance company. The conclusion is drawn, that despite the generally positive attitude of the most Russian citizens towards insurance as a service, the level of coverage in the country remains low. In this regard, considerable attention is paid to the study of the causes of negative attitudes of potential consumers to the services offered by domestic insurers. Among those, in particular, are social stereotypes, insufficient financial security, low financial literacy, overestimated cost of insurance products, distrust of insurance organizations. In conclusion, the author suggests the measures that could help increase the coverage of the population with insurance services.
Keywords: insurance, sociological survey, interest in insurance services
A. A. Kozlov, A. V. Vlasov
Cryptoeconomics: Pilot Study on Investments in ICO Startups Using Neural Networks
In the field of cryptoeconomics the Ethereum (Ethereum Foundation) project gave opportunity to create “own” cryptocurrency – new token based on its smart-contract platform to everyone without lowlevel programming skills. Then it became obvious that tokens could be used for crowdfunding as the Ethereum did in 2014. Unregulated and easy to access such scheme became popular among related to the blockchain tech startups. It was named Initial Coin Offering (ICO/or ITO). Despite its name, which is similar to IPO, this scheme is usually used for venture funding of a new project instead of expanding already well-established working business.
The authors use machine-learning algorithms to classify ICOs and estimate ROI based on public digital data and web-sources. The goal of the research is to develop sustainable and efficient model, which will predict target profit ROI (profit trends) of ICO startup. Data collection and analysis period: Feb-Mar 2018. The prediction model and the application (service) of ICO startups’ selection are developed as the result of the study.
Results. There were over 3000 samples of ICO-startups in the research dataset. After cleaning and elimination of outliers, it contained only 518. The number of samples with positive ROI (which means that these ICOs were profitable) was 234. Cross validation metric was confirmed to be accurate. The model achieved 79 % accuracy (average value). To prove this score separated prediction was executed the metrics: for test dataset AUC is 0.78; for profitable samples Precision: 0.76; Recall: 0.9 for profitable; F1-score: 0.82.
Discussions. In order to achieve the objectives of this study, various IT components of the service architecture (applications) were developed to monitor, analyze and predict the risks of ICO startups. An artificial neural network was developed to solve the problem of ROI classification and prediction. The average ROI among profitable ICOS was 47 %. Taking into consideration that the crypto market is highly volatile and that there is a possibility that such investments will not bring any profit, this model of monitoring, analysis and prediction can be very valuable for the purposes of critical selection (exclusion) of a number of ICO projects from potential investment.
Conclusion. The developed components can be used as a basis of monitoring service of ICO startups. The risk-forecasting model can be improved, foremost, by using the most complete (and wider) set of data. In this case, individual data collection and processing tasks can be performed manually, which will require additional resources. It should be noted that other types of neural networks can be developed for both text analysis and trading data analysis. This may lead to the logic of using a combination of models, which will potentially help to provide the most accurate predictions.
Keywords: cryptocurrency, tokens, investment, machine learning, neural networks, ICO, ITO, ROI, risk, cryptoeconomics
JEL: C45, C53, C60, C80, D81, M13, O31, P49
A. K. Morozkina
EAEU Countries in the International Development Assistance Framework
The article addresses the issue of official development aid in the EAEU, which is rarely tackled in the Russian academic literature despite geopolitical and economic importance of the union for Russia. Based on the OECD DAC data from 1992 to 2017 article analyses volumes of ODA in the EAEU and its breakdown by recipients, donors, instruments and channels, and compares EAEU structure with the global structure. Furthermore, this article discusses directions of aid and their correspondence with EAEU recipient countries’ (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) priorities. It concludes that, first, in Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan ODA corresponds with their strategic priorities and second, that in more developed EAEU recipient countries (Kazakhstan and Belarus) areas, where ODA might be of practical value for the solving of global problems, are infrastructure and climate change. The author also presents classification of donor countries on the base of donor motives and position of EAEU donor countries in it (Russia and Kazakhstan), as well as effectiveness of aid from the donor’s point of view. Based on the conducted analysis author provides priority recommendations on improvement of ODA efficiency in EAEU, including streamlining of Russia’s ODA and development of sectoral and geographic priorities.
Keywords: official foreign aid, sustainable development, Eurasian Economic Union, bilateral aid, donor countries, recipient countries
JEL: H72, H77
D. B. Krylov
The Use of Paradigm Concepts in Russian Accounting Science
The article investigates the influence of the T. Kuhn’s theory of scientific revolutions on the development of accounting science in the USSR and in the Russian Federation. The author analyzes the usage of the T. Kuhn’s term “paradigm” in the USSR and in Russia and considers its application for periodization of the accounting development history. The analysis determines that during the period from the 1980s to the present the term “paradigm” has been constantly used in accounting science. In general, there are two main areas to use this term. Firstly, the selection of 3–4 basic paradigms in the development history of world accounting science, that has become classic in Russia, and their further detailed definition with the purpose of describing and forecasting the ways of accounting science development. Secondly, the identification of new “potential” paradigms, which will become the basis of “normal” science in the near future. The consideration of accounting as an indivisible science that does not have separate scientific directions with its own paradigms and the non-recognition of pre-paradigm periods in the accounting science development are typical for the Russian scientists.
Keywords: accounting, paradigm, scientific revolution, history of economic thought
JEL: M41, B00
C. M. Davis, E. M. Pazukhina
Financial, Career and Professional Aspects of the Motivation of the New Generation of Doctors in Russia
Russia is now experiencing a significant inflow of Generation Y (Millennials, born 1980–1999) into the labor force. By 2020 Generation Y employees will make up 50 % of the national labor force and will occupy important mid-career positions. International studies show that Millennials have different motivations and career expectations. They are unlike those of previous generations in having better technological skills, higher expectations concerning technology at the workplace and opportunities to use their professional skills, greater interest in achieving a work-life balance and strong desires to improve their knowledge related to work. The hierarchy of motivating factors of young Russian doctors diverges from those in the UK by the position of financial remuneration, which is higher in Russia. Quantitative analysis of Russian surveys shows that doctors from Generation Y have lower perceptions of their social status than do doctors from previous generations. The article concludes by presenting proposals to improve motivation of Millennials employed in Russian medical system, which could increase their skills and professional performance.
Keywords: generations, cohorts, demography, motivation, doctors, healthcare sector, reforms
JEL: I18, J44, H51, J11
I. Yu. Varjas
Institutional Rent in the Russian Economy: Fiscal Aspects
The review of the scientific report “Effects of Institutional Differences and Institutional Rent in the Russian Economy” addresses the problem of institutional heterogeneity of Russian business. Based on the results obtained by the team of INP RAS with implementation of analysis of the financial and economic activities of ferrous metallurgy enterprises and banks, the author defines the theory of economic development heterogeneity. The conclusion of the article discusses the certain suggestions on how to use the proposed theoretical developments in fiscal policy.
Keywords: fiscal policy, tax expenses, economic institutions, institutional trap, rent
JEL: E02, G38