№6(40) November-December 2017
V. V. Bukharsky, E. Y. Vetrova, A. M. Lavrov
Correlation Analysis of the Debt Burden on the Budgets of the Russian Federation Subjects in 2005–2016
In 2005–2016 the public debt and the debt burden on the budgets of the Russian Federation subjects have increased significantly. At the same time, the trends demonstrated by the subjects of the Russian Federation in the public debt dynamics have been qualitatively different. With correlation analysis results as a basis the article states that none of the objective factors have shown a significant and stable influence on the trends above, thus formulating a hypothesis of subjective (political) factors as those having a decisive impact. Hence the need for greater responsibility of regional authorities in debt policy matters.
Keywords: public debt of the Russian Federation subjects, debt burden, budgets of the Russian Federation subjects, structure of public debt, dynamics of public debt, correlation analysis.
JEL: H61, H63, H72
A. D. Andryakov
Balance and Sustainability of Regional Budgets in 2008–2016
Introduction of unfinanced federal mandates connected to the May President Orders in 2012 together with steady reduction in real terms of federal transfers to regions resulted in the loss of regional budget sustainability and balance in the major part of the Russian Federation subjects. Regions began to accumulate state debt in amounts greater than Budget Code restrictions. In order to allow them to obey the Budget Code these restrictions have been soften by excluding federal loans from regional debt limits established in the Budget Code. Obviously, this exemption did not reduce any regional debt or budget obligations themselves. In result by the beginning of 2017 more than half of all Russian regions fell into budget sustainability crisis. This paper discusses the reasons of the regional budget sustainability and balance losses in detail, as well as possible approaches to recovery from that crisis.
Keywords: budget balance, budget sustainability, regional budgets, regional debt, intergovernmental grants.
JEL: H71, H72, H74
А. А. Bokarev, I. A. Yakovlev, L. S. Kabir
Green Investments in Russia: Searching for Priority Directions
The article provides analysis of the problems that hamper development of the «green» investments financing mechanism as a part of the national strategy for sustainable development financing. There the authors considered the arguments put forward by various interested parties as «green» investments justification. Attention is drawn to the key role of the state power and the importance of a political solution for launching the process of national economy transition to the «green» growth model. The article also studies the areas of restrictions and contradictions in the sphere of «green» investments implementation in Russia. There given speculations about the reasons that so far have not allowed to highlight the priorities for the process of «green» investment in the Russian economy. The authors conclude that the foreign experience already gained the great practical value despite the politicization of the transition to the «green» economy.
Keywords: sustainable development, green economy, green finance, green investments, financing transition to the green economy, priority, strategy, policy.
JEL: O44, Q32, B00
R. S. Leukhin, A. L. Suslina
Labour Taxes Progressivity in Russia: Ways to Reform Personal Income Tax
This paper covers the topic of labour taxes progressivity in Russia and reviews possible reforms of personal income tax. Using their own tax wedge calculations the authors determine that Russia is one of a few countries with regressive labour taxation (in most other considered countries it is progressive). The calculation results show as well that labour tax burden in Russia is not high in comparison with OECD countries and a little bit higher than the average level of emerging markets. The authors also calculate tax reliefs progressivity using the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey and the Federal Tax Service data. Moreover, in this article the authors estimate the impact of different personal income tax reforms on the Russian budget and inequality.
Keywords: taxes in Russia, personal income tax, labour taxes, progressivity, budget revenues.
JEL: H21, H24
A. I. Votinov, I. P. Stankevich
VAR Approach to Efficiency Evaluation of Fiscal Economy Encouragement Measures
The paper presents a vector autoregression-based approach to evaluation fiscal measures. Using both structural and Bayesian VAR models, the authors estimate fiscal multipliers of overall government expenditure and its components: national defense, national economy, education and social policy expenditures. The results are checked for robustness using different lag length and model specifications and different sets of hyperparameters in Bayesian VAR case. Regarding overall expenditures these results are quite stable across specifications and correspond well with results obtained in previous research in this field. National defense and social policy multipliers are shown to be negative (in contrast to previous research on Russian data), when national economy and education expenditures multipliers are positive. The article also presents some policy implications.
Keywords: fiscal multipliers, public spending, VAR models, Bayesian approach.
M. R. Zembatov
The Analysis of Risk Factors of the Supplier at the Conclusion of Government Contract
This article describes development problems of a formalized method for determining the presence of counterparty risk factors. This method can be used as an unbiased feature that allows to predict and prevent the risk of conditions for unreasonable growth of public expenditure, due to suits against public bodies involved in public procurement.
Keywords: public procurement, public expenditure, counterparty, risk factor, litigation from contractual legal relations, suit.
JEL: K12, H57
Y. М. Gorlin, E. E. Grishina, V. Y. Lyashok, V. V. Fedorov
Increase in Retirement Age: Experience of Foreign Countries
and the Assessment of the Effects for Russia
The article analyzes the foreign experience of increase in the retirement age. The authors investigate the boundaries and rates of increase in the retirement age, taking into account different, such as life expectancy (including life expectancy of persons older the retirement age), the requirements for the length of service and the availability of early retirement opportunities. The article gives an actuarial estimation of economic effects of raising the retirement age in relation to Russian conditions. It is shown that raising of the retirement age makes it possible to achieve a long-term pension system balance with the increase in pensions in real terms.
Keywords: pension age, ageing, pension reform, early retirement, mandatory pension insurance, long-term pension system balance.
M. N. Kirillova, O. F. Seliverstova
Analysis of Social Support Measures for Large Families, Poor Families
and Single-parent Families with Children
The article discusses social support measures aimed at improvement of the provided social support to families with children, including support to low-income families. The authors analyze the size of benefits provided to different types of families and the number of such measures in different regions of Russia. The types of families analyzed include large families, single-parent families and low-income families with children. The analysis shows that there is a certain common set of regional social benefits available across all regions, as well as diverse region-specific benefits, the size, the purpose and the parameters of which match the diversity of regional socio-demographic circumstances, welfare policies and budgets. Since in Russia the provision of social support benefits is predominantly the responsibility of regional administrations, the number and the size of benefits provided to families with children depend on the financial and economic capacity of the region where they reside. The authors also show that single-parent families in Russia experience higher risks of material deprivation, than large families.
Keywords: social support of families with children, social benefits, targeting, eligibility criteria.
JEL: I38, I39, H53, H75
A. V. Matskevich, V. V. Romanova
Application of Per Capita Standards for Financing of Educational Institutions
The purpose of this article is to analyze financing of educational institutions based on per capita standards and to identify various approaches to determination of standard costs for public (municipal) services provision. Based on the legislative and normative frameworks of the Russian Federation subjects, as of May 2017, the authors identified three main approaches at the regional level to determination of the standard costs structure, depending on the distribution of the costs’ elements for general economic needs. The results of the research showed that, despite another Russia’s demand to oblige regions to apply per capita standards for determination of the subsidy amount for public (municipal) assignment fulfillment, it was not accomplished in all constituent entities of the country. In some cases, relative statutory and regulatory enactments imply the use of per capita standards and standard costs, but in reality, the calculations for financing receiving are based on actual expenditures.
Keywords: financing of educational institutions, financing based on per capita standards, subsidies for financial support of public (municipal) assignment, basic standard costs, industry and territorial ratios.
JEL: I20, I22, G20, G28
K. S. Proshin, A. M. Shaykin
Basic Approaches to Implementing Index-based Crop Insurance in the Russian Federation
Discussion on ways of further development of agricultural insurance in Russia has become more active due to import substitution policy pursued by Russian government. This article is focused on to study of possible approaches to implementing area-yield index agricultural insurance in the Russian Federation. It also coveres possible methods of state support for this type of insurance and the role of JSC “Russian National Reinsurance Company” in providing reinsurance programs on the national market.
Keywords: index-based insurance, agricultural insurance, state support, area-yield index.